Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Portrait of a Division as a Young Man Part IV: AFC South

I've decided that I will not be doing an NFC equivalent of this, so this will wrap up the divisional series. Anyway, to business:

The AFC South is the most one-sided division in the AFC, if not the NFL as a whole. Last year's (apparently) fluky Tennessee team notwithstanding, the Colts almost always have a clear edge in the division race and have for years. The one constant for the Colts- and, by extension, the division- has been Peyton Manning. No big surprise, there. Other factors come and go for Indianapolis- the running game (with Edge), defense (good periodically, terrible often), Marvin Harrison, Tony Dungy- but Manning has been the steady hand, as consistently good on the field as he is consistently annoying in advertisements. The Colts' modus operandi is the shootout: they favor the no-huddle, heavy passing, and, defensively, rely on hit-or-miss tactics (namely, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing the passer, when each is severely undersized and terrible against the run). This leaves the South in essentially two camps: the Texans and Colts, on the one hand, follow roughly the same model (with vastly different results), while the Jaguars and Titans both depend on a more conservative approach, with defense and ball control taking the forefront.

My prediction:
1. Colts, 14-2
2. Houston, 9-7
3. Jacksonville, 8-8
4. Tennessee, 6-10
I expect the Colts to very seriously contend for the Super Bowl spot- they ought to at least reach the conference championship game, and I figure they have as good a shot at the league championship as anybody, if not better. They've struggled recently, but a good loss should get that out of their systems. If they drop one they should win, expect them to come out strong in the playoffs. I think Indy matches up well against the Bengals and Chargers, but might have a bit more trouble with the Patriots or Steelers. We'll see, I suppose.

Players

Division's signature: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts. Wayne exemplifies the importance of the passing game to this division, and he is just about as consistent personally as the Colts are collectively. He has a steady, excellent game, and that's just what's expected of him.

No honorable mentions this time- my brain am not working too goodly.

Best overall: Jeff Saturday, C, Colts. As good a player at his position as anyone, Saturday is very tough and very, very smart. he's been doing this for a long time, folks, and few do it nearly so well.

Well, it should be no surprise that my next pick is...

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. That's right, a Colts whitewash. Eh. They're the only team I think is worth having an MVP in this division. Still doesn't mean I like this guy.

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