Fight Night

Given the hugeness of this event, I'm going to be doing a round by round sort of recap of the Pacquiao-Cotto fight. My prediction is a TKO victory for Pacquiao late in the eleventh round.

Round 1: Mostly a feeling out sort of a round, but the last twenty seconds or so became electric. Previous to that point, I had seen only one attempt at a power punch, a slashing right hook by Pac-man, but during the waning seconds, both fighters opened up and threw viciously. Not many of the blows landed, but it was the most exciting part of the round. I give the first to Cotto on the basis of his jabbing and a good body blow or two that landed late. He's looking to be the more disciplined thus far, with Pacquiao more active. (10-9, Cotto)

Round 2: Pacquiao appears to be trying to draw Cotto into a more open fight. He's throwing and spinning around Miguel, who seems to have opened up his offense a bit. Cotto landed a brutal combination to the ribs late, and has Manny in the corner briefly, but Pac escapes and the round probably goes to him- although I think it could be either way (typing and watching is hard for me to do at the same time, especially since I had to recap the first during this round). I'll try to keep up better next round. (19-19)

Round 3: Cotto looks to take it to Manny early this round, with jabs and straight rights. About thirty seconds in, and Manny is fighting back a bit more. Little knockdown for Pac at about fifty seconds in- Cotto's gloves brushed the canvas, but he did not go down. He has Manny on the ropes, but that's a good escape by the Filipino. Manny, as always, looks to value aggression over defense here. Ooh, strong hooks to the body, but blocked by Pacquiao. They're really throwing leather now, with less than a minute left. I guess the edge has to go to Manny because of the knockdown, but the most significant punches have been landed by Cotto, particularly after the 2:30 mark. If not for that knockdown, this is Cotto's fight so far, but as is, Manny might be as much as three points up. (29-27, Pacquiao)

Round 4: Cotto should be looking to box Manny, I think, to make sure he gets a point back. And, yeah, he seems to be working the jab and left to the body. Manny has been backing away from Cotto to this point, all through the fight. Some brawling now, about halfway through. Oh man, does Pacquiao have fast hands. He's thrown some mostly-deflected flurries, but that's probably going to look good to the judges. Cotto has him on the ropes now, and this is where he wants to be. It looked to me as though the hooks were getting in under Manny's elbows into his midsection. Oh man, another knockdown for Pacquiao. His power isn't as consistent as Cotto's, but it is a lot more explosive. Round ends, and, once again, Pacquiao might have stolen a round on the basis of a knockdown- I certainly thought Cotto had been winning until the end. Overall, to this point, it seems as though Manny has been able to force Cotto into a brawl, and Cotto has been too eager to do so. He needs to work his technical boxing and be more patient. (39-35, Pacquiao)

Round 5: It's undeniably Manny's fight to this point, due to those knockdowns. Cotto doesn't really look hurt, though. He's looking good early in this round. This has had a really fast pace so far, which probably favors Pacquiao. Looks like Manny is smelling a little blood, now, a minute in. He's getting more and more aggressive, and Cotto has not been able to really make him pay. Cotto's back to working the jab and the body hooks. Looks like he kind of winged Manny, but didn't hurt him. Cotto's slugging too much- I think he's playing into Manny's hands. Manny is once again on the ropes, but he fights off them with a good flurry of uppercuts and hooks. Manny has started to dance a bit, trying to make Cotto work at his pace. This is not the sort of fight I thought it would be. I expected it tighter. I really don't know who this round goes to, but the pace was definitely in Pacquiao's favor. The judges might see Cotto as more effective, however. (49-45, Pacquiao)

Round 6: Cotto is staggered early, but it might just have been a slip- I couldn't see what happened. Cotto is stalking Manny right now, but Pacquiao won't let him get too comfortable. Manny just ripped him to the ribs with a decent hook. Back and forth to this point, and Cotto briefly switches to southpaw, before going right back to orthodox. Manny's had all the significant shots so far, a bit over half done. Cotto looks uneasy, and Pacquiao is backing him up into the ropes. Clinch, and break. Oh, Cotto is not looking too good. Pacquaio's speed looks to be telling. Another back-and-forth switch to southpaw for Cotto. Decent left to the cheek from Cotto. Pacquaio is roughing him up though, against the ropes, but the situation reverses again and the round ends. Back and forth, wild round, but it goes to Manny on my card. (59-54, Pacquiao)

Round 7: Missed the opening of this round, so we'll see what I can figure out. For the most part, it looks pretty even. From what I can see, Manny is pecking away at Cotto's guard, and with decent effectiveness, it seems. Cotto has been unable to hurt the smaller man. Pacquiao has not had that problem. Cotto looks to open up a bit, but then backs off. Manny is now starting to stalk him, and has hit him with some decent shots, including a thudding right to the belly just now. Looks to be his round, though I missed over a minute. (69-63, Pacquiao)

Round 8: Right now, I have Cotto down six points, and it looks bad for the Puerto Rican. Pacquiao has had speed and pop on his side to date, with Cotto's superior size and strength being reduced to plodding jabs and blocked power punches. We start, and Cotto looks a little bit anxious. He's firing the jab out nicely. Cotto opens up again, but it looks like "sound and fury, signifying nothing." Manny's right has been a little more active than I expected, and it's caused Cotto to develop a quasi-reflexive shoulder twitch. Cotto does not look good. He's backing and covering up. His offense has been handcuffed by Pacquaio's, although I don't think he's been seriously hurt. He's being smothered, mostly. Ooh, he got tagged a little bit, but the legs are steady. He's forced to clinch to get separated. Manny all the way in this round. I think the biggest question is no longer whether Manny wins, but whether he finishes Cotto or not. If he stops him, I think he earns some serious points toward all-time great status. (79-72, Pacquiao)

Round 9: Cotto looks urgent now. He knows he needs something drastic. Cotto has to clinch to save himself against the ropes. Oh, Pacquiao is swinging wide now, and Cotto is just holding on. he's being dominated. I'm expecting a TKO in the next couple of rounds. It's getting so close to a stoppage. The crowd knows it, too. It's looking very ominous for Cotto. Manny has looked dominant throughout, with only a couple of rounds even close. Cotto looks frozen out there. He has no answer whatsoever to Pacquiao's athleticism. (89-81, Pacquiao)

Round 10: Cotto needs to come out and swing. He has nothing left, and nothing much to lose. I think I'm only just beginning to appreciate what we have in Manny Pacquiao. Anyway, Cotto does look more aggressive right now, hoping to stretch out Manny before the end. To his credit, he doesn't look half bad, either. Pacquiao is starting to move back into the driver's seat at about a minute in, though. Cotto does seem to have slowed Manny's barrage, but now he's stuck being a pure boxer, and that's not going to save him. Pacquiao with a combination with just under a minute remaining. Pacquiao has definitely slowed, though whether he's preparing for another flurry or actually tired is unclear. Cotto doesn't look especially tired. Not as dominant a round, but still one that I think goes to Pacquiao. (99-90, Pacquiao)

Round 11: This is the one I predicted to end it. We'll see- Cotto might have used up whatever he had in the last round to keep Pacquiao off of him, but Pac also looks to have emptied his gas tank a bit. Manny might be content to coast now, although that doesn't seem like his personality. Pacquio ripped him there with a right-left. Cotto keeps witching his stance- that's the third there-and-back stance switch for him. Manny is stalking once again, and Cotto seems to be trying to hold on. This might be it, this might be it. Cotto was against the ropes, but he's back off. Pacquiao back to the hunt. Cotto has stayed out of really serious trouble so far. Pacquiao opens up again, but Cotto's chin is still holding up. Cotto avoids Manny's wide swings. Looks like he's survived my guess. Yep, there's the bell. He did lose the round thoroughly, though. (109-99, Pacquiao)

Round 12: Cotto has essentially two options now. He can either forgo defense altogether and let loose, hoping to catch Pacquiao just right, or he can hold on and try to avoid the stoppage. I know which I'd prefer. Manny seems to be pursuing the knockout. He hasn't truly hurt Cotto since the second knockdown- Cotto has had to cover up, but he's managed to absorb most everything. And there's the stoppage! I need to see the replay on that: I couldn't see what led up to it, other than Cotto ducking in the corner. As they shake hands and hug, I can see that Cotto has a gash over the left eye, which suggests either a good right hook, or an awkward left. I want to see the replay of that shot- it seems likely to me that it was one big shot that caused the TKO. I was off by one round, which I don't think is too bad for a fight like this, with so many variables- the catchweight of 145, Cotto's mental state after the shaky Clottey fight, Pacquiao's confidence-versus-complacence questions, and so forth. It looks as though the ref stepped in a bit inappropriately- yes, Cotto, was hurt and ducked down, but he was still fully aware and just trying to protect the eye. Either way, he was knocked down twice and thoroughly beaten. This is crazy: Pacquiao just claimed his seventh title. He started at 112 pounds in 1997, and has claimed more or less every belt on the way up to this current weight class. I think later I'll try to do a post to process this, but for now, I can only say that I would never have believed he could do this before the fight against De La Hoya, or even before the fight against Hatton. After that one, though, and especially this one, I could never bet against him. I'd take him at any weight class he cares to fight in, now. He dominated Cotto completely. Unbelievable.

Note: I guess I was wrong about the cut- it came during the tenth, but it wasn't really bleeding until the final round. I'm still not sure what caused it.