Portrait of a Division As a Young Man Part III: AFC West

The AFC West, more than any other division, has been defined in the recent past by its absolute lack of clutch play. Last year, the Broncos had a historic collapse and ultimately ceded the division title to the Chargers- and speaking of the Chargers, few teams have had as much talent and as little postseason success as San Diego. Only a few years ago, San Diego was in possession of the game's best receiving tight end (Antonio Gates), its best running back (LaDainian Tomlinson), and a quarterback in the top handful of passers (Drew Brees). Despite that, and a dominating front seven on defense, the Chargers failed and ultimately let Brees walk in favor of Philip Rivers. Don't mistake me, Rivers is a decent player, but Brees has since joined the trifecta of elite quarterbacks- Manning and Brady being the other two. So, welcome to Chokesville! I present to you- the AFC West.

My Prediction:
1. San Diego Chargers, 11-5
2. Denver Broncos, 10-6
3. Kansas City Chiefs, 4-12
4. Oakland Raiders, 3-13
That's right, folks, I expect another epic choke by the Broncos, who currently have the same record as the Chargers. I expect Denver to blink, and the Chargers, I think, will more or less be handed the division. The Raiders and Chiefs are terrible as always, and I really could care less if I end up being accurate on those two. I do think that Denver will get a wildcard spot, along with Pittsburgh (since they lost to Cincinnati and probably invalidated my previous prediction for the North). I don't know that either of these teams will do much in the postseason- their histories are against them. In fact, I would be highly un-surprised if both lost in the first round.

Players (again, no repeats)

Division's signature: LaDainian Tomlinson, HB, San Diego Chargers. I'm sticking with this pattern of good but choke-tastic, so I figured I'd go with the man who had about five or six seasons of utterly dominant play but consistently gets injured or plays ineffectively in the playoffs. Tomlinson used to be the best combination of agility, power, and speed in the league, but has quickly degenerated into a Bill Walton-like figure, valuable when healthy but oft-injured.
Honorable mentions: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers, who is another choke artist in the playoffs; Shawne Merriman, LB, Chargers- he hasn't been the same this year.

Best overall: Elvis Dumervil, OLB, Denver Broncos. This one is a bit tricky, because the mantle of best player in the West has changed quite a bit lately- not too long ago, I would have been tempted to name Merriman, Gates, or Tomlinson, but Dumervil was on a real tear this year. That's about it- I don't have much else to say about him.
Honorable mentions: Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers; Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos.

MVP: Jamal Williams, NT, Chargers. This might seem like an odd choice for MVP- how many defensive lineman ever get consideration for the real award, let alone nose tackles?- but the fact is that Jamal Williams is the biggest difference-maker for the Chargers. When he plays, they have a dominant run defense: the man is almost impossible to move off the ball, even with two or three blockers (that 350-pound frame comes in very handy for that), and he is surprisingly quick for such a large man. I think the difference is especially evident if you compare two significant games against Pittsburgh from the last few years- in October of 2006, the Steelers could do nothing right on offense. Not even Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings could do anything to slow down Williams, and they were each among the top two or three at their positions that year. Williams had six tackles and a sack, despite the notorious difficulty of producing any sort of numbers from the nose. This year, the Chargers-Steelers game became a shootout, with Rashard Mendenhall rushing for well over a hundred yards- and Jamal Williams did not play. Williams changes games, make no mistake.
Honorable mention: Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos, shockingly. He actually played very well through the first half, before starting to unravel against Pittsburgh. I would also put Rivers here, but he is a better fit for signature player.