Portrait of a Division As a Young Man Part II: AFC East

Unlike the home of my true NFL love, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the division of my Team Beta has a scatterbrained and eclectic feel to it. Lacking a unified personality, the East has been chaotic over the last few years, due at least in part to the peculiar nature of its premiere team, the New England Patriots (my aforementioned second-place team). The Patriots have not stuck with the same blueprint over the years, like Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and thus, the nature of the East has been fluid and mercurial. In their first championship season (2001 for those with short memories), the Patriots relied primarily on a resilient defense that excelled at keeping the opponent out of the endzone, and, oddly enough, the kicker. Tom Brady played his first games that year, and performed respectably- his numbers were above average, and he certainly did manage to win games. The next few years saw the defense improve to the league's best in terms of scoring, then age and decline, with this year representing a possible renaissance. Brady, meanwhile, developed into a statistical juggernaut while keeping his knack for winning, particularly after the arrival of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, both of whom were acquired for highway robber prices (a fourth and a second round pick, respectively). Simultaneously, the public perception of the team changed just as rapidly: from the heroic underdog, wearing red, white, and blue in the wake of September 11th (and beating the offensive spectacle of the St. Louis Rams), by 2004, they had become a dynastic group of Tim Duncans, for lack of a better term. That image lasted only for a few years, as the team brought on more and more players who had previously had "character issues," epitomized by the arrival of Moss. The metamorphosis was complete after the incident of Spygate, which calls for a separate post to deal with. Suffice it to say, the Patriots became known as a corrupt organization with a sinister, Emperor Palpatine-esque madman at the helm.

During this entire time, the primary challenger in the division has vacillated somewhat, but the major player seems to be the New York Jets, whose play is consistently up-and-down, which is something of a paradox, but not a very interesting one. In any case, the point remains the same: the AFC East is chameleon-like, a shifting, enigmatic beast.

My Prediction
1. New England Patriots, 12-4
2. New York Jets, 9-7
3. Miami Dolphins, 6-10
4. Buffalo Bills, 5-11

I have to believe that the Dolphins will eventually win outside the division, but not enough to matter. The Bills will be fortunate if they win more than another two games, and I don't see the Jets doing significantly better than 5-3 the rest of the way. The Patriots, however, should contend for a bye, although I'm not sure whether they will get it. I don't expect any other team from this division to make the playoffs- it's more likely that the wild cards will come from the North and West, in my opinion (probably whichever of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh flinches and the Chargers in the West, assuming Denver holds on). I half-expect the Patriots to advance to the championship round of the AFC, but I don't quite see them as a Super Bowl contender. At least, not yet.


Players (as with last time, no repeats, even on honorable mention)

Division's signature: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots. It might seem odd that I would choose Welker over much more visible players, including the other high-profile receiver in New England, Randy Moss, but the fact is that Welker typifies a certain kind of player who often appears in the East: a player who seems like a gadget-type or otherwise quirky afterthought, but turns out to settle into the perfect role in the perfect system. The others I think fit this bill include Deion Branch and David Givens, both ex-Pats receivers, and, in a different sense, Curtis Martin, who wasn't the most talented running back, but by far the most consistent and reliable, with both the Patriots and the Jets.
Honorable mention: Chad Penning, QB, Miami Dolphins (current injury status notwithstanding). There really wasn't anyone else I could think of that wouldn't be better placed elsewhere.

Best overall: Vince Wilfork, NT, Patriots. There are other tempting prospects, but since (SPOILER- but not really) Tom Brady is an obvious choice for MVP, I found myself thinking more and more of the big dude in the center of the Patriots defense. If Richard Seymour was still in-division, he would have gotten the call, but since his exile to football purgatory (also known as Oakland), Wilfork has taken up his mantle as the go-to-guy on the defensive line. He's massive, tough, and surprisingly athletic, which translates to being immensely difficult to block. Not a whole lot else can be said, other than that he does what he's supposed to consistently, which will not often show up in the box score for a nose tackle.
Honorable mentions: Randy Moss, WR, Patriots; Nick Mangold, C, New York Jets; Allen Faneca, G, Jets

MVP: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots. There's simply no other choice: the nigh-invulnerable Patriots became eminently mortal during his injury absence, and no other quarterback besides Peyton Manning has as cerebral an approach and as complete a grasp of his offense.
Honorable mentions: no one else comes close. Sorry to be so cliche, I suppose.

I also apologize for the clean sweep of Patriots, but I'm just being honest.